tv Fast Money CNBC September 6, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
closing bell. thank you so much for joining us. join me on twitter and google plus. have a fantastic weekend. i'm see you next week. stay with cnbc because "fast money" begins right now. [ music playing ] [ music playing ] i'm melissa lee. our guests tonight, let's get straight to the big story. trading september swings. the market originally catching a bit on mediocre jobs report suggesting the taper was still on sliding more than 148 points russia's putin says he stands ready to dramatically protect russia in arms t. ten year hovers just below 3%. so we ask tonight how are you trading the swings in both sentiment as well as stocks? >> it's great.
16.25 is the line in the sand the s&p has held there a number of times. last friday woebl probably 25 to 30 handles. effectively, that's what you have seen. i think we have a little wiggle room to the upside. i think an interesting way to trade this. look at some of these retailers beaten down specifically i mentioned macy's had a big day yesterday. give back a little today. macy's is one you crawl through the wreckage that's where you peck up. >> what did you make from the action today, jim? >> look i think you have two weeks of syria talk that has given the markets a reason to pull back and consolidate a good year. syria will be done with in a couple of weeks. there is no way russia and the u.s. is going to war over syria. that's crazy talk. it's not going to happen. so this gives everybody an opportunity to get fully invested. the cyclicals have a long way to go. that's where we're putting our money. >> i agree with jim on the larger side of it. i think you have to be buying stocks here. i think when it comes to taper,
i don't think anything will be done. housing stocks are screaming by. >> they are. >> what kind of housing talks? >> i'm dhi personally. i think you can boy home depot, all of them. sorry, let me finish, they have been so boat up. it's only a half hour show. treasuries will see the taper even if it's light. i don't think you will see it in mbs. >> i think they're crazy when it comes to housing stocks. >> you don't need to qualify it. >> for a trade. that's crazier guidance than what he bought. you foe what's interesting about today is a couple different things one that chart that she showed in the beginning does not do the justice to anybody who traded this market today. it was incredible volatility across asset classes today. so if otherening that i would mention to grasso's choice,ester george one of the most hawkish governors who voted against qe consistently come out and said today, she would vote for $15 billion of tapering. a lot of people in the market thought 25 billion.
the market might have priced in some better economic news. so now you know you have that line in the sand 15 billion. she said half mbs, half treasuries. i don't think they do any mbs. the housing market is too important. but the trade out of this now, i think you can buy bonds once again here at least into september 18th into that fomc meeting. then you need to be careful. >> we talked about the shb last week. you had great support. up nicely today one and a quarter percent or so. as counterintuitive it may sound, loe i don't like the housing market. i think it sets up for a good trade. >> would you buy? >> well i would and i'll tell you this on the ten-year note 3% has to be a ceiling for a very simple reason the short rate is anchored. the fed funds rate is not going to move up any time in the next year. >> that basis point of steepness between the ten year and short rate, that's too attractive for lever annual buyers to buy the ten year and keep the yield
down. it's not going down much more 3% is not going much higher than that. this is a good stable rate past the september 18th. >> we'll find out on that. that's been the fed's argument. their argument is if we hold enough thought, rates won't go higher. that's the stock vs. flow. here's the point. it's not up to them. it's up to the bond market. we'll see september. >> one last thing, you said the market factored in taper, what factored in more than markets? eem. a true bounce in this i believe the bounce continues the next couple of weeks. >> with you on that. >> today's weak jobs number is it enough to sway the feds away from the move? dan greenhouse chief strategist and cnbc contributor, dan, always good to see you. >> always a pleasure. >> what about the taper? >> we are still at 100%. the issue is not if they reduce it or not, grasso's point 15 billion is the over or under if we use the fed's own survey as a
pines for believing that. they will need 10 billion, 18.5. the issue in our mind the issue is what do they signal thereafter. i think in light of that they've built into mark we will reduce this to some degree. i they shea should what they should do then in our opinion is be very forceful about how slow and easy they're going to go about doing this. maybe lower the thresholds. they can make an ad judgment to bring down the curve and calm market fears. >> it would be a symbolic gesture to the markets. yes, we need it. it's going to be tiny and the effects of it are going to be phenomenal. >> the cat is out of the bag. it would be a shame to waste a doubling of the ten-84 treasury. it would be a shame to waste the solidarity with respect to stock prices. it would be a shame to waste that by not doing anything thereafter, how about this? we will reduce it by 10 billion. >> hey dan, in light of our prior discussion do you have an
outlook on where the ten year might end the year? >> we did. we blew right through it. >> what's a revised number? >> as of last night, we have suspended the treasury market. i have been for lack of a better word. >> you sound like the president talking about syria. give us a number. >> i think lower 2.75. >> does that mean it does not matter to stocks what yields do? because that has been the argument you know as we kiss 3% that this could really kill them? >> let me tell you something, i have been on the forefront of arguing the point cnbc you keep having people come out. you keep debateing, higher yields, bad for stocks. the ten year is roughly speaking 2.9. let's say 3%. it was 1.4%. in that move where the ten year doubled from 140 to 2.80 stocks are higher by 25%. >> dan, i'm curious. we had this on non-farm pay roms today, which would suggest perhaps the economy is weaker than isn.
>> that is suggesting. so where do you stand on that and how do you position for that kind of dichotomy where we're not sure about the jobs market. >> this is a forest in the trees argument as far as i'm concerned. can you go back to any report over the last six months a year, sometimes it's a little better. sometimes it's worse. it makes for a good discussion point. at the end of the die, this is for lack of a better word, a crappy commitment it's likely to stay that way. some reports will be better. some reports will be worse. there is nothing to suggest the next three years look any different than the previous. >> it's a crappy economy. it's lever and to an improving economy industrials and economy. >> industrials performed quite well. i want to jump off what grasso had to say. to some degree in india, take ra look at brazil the stockmarkets bounced, the low, there are some plays there. we have also been overweight tech hasn't worked. >> that las largely been apple and oracle's fault. industrials are more than a domestic economy, it's about the
world economy a number of things. the most important thing we continuously make is the environment matters less than how companies are managing within that environment. >> okay. dan, good to have you with us. dan greenhouse let's get to the buzz kill of the day. shares are falling on a reuter's report that alan mulally is stepping down from ceo earlier than expected to explore other positions. one of those positions is steve ballmer's job at microsoft. do you still like ford? >> i like ford a lot. >> does it make you like microsoft at all? >> it doesn't make me like microsoft at all. he has created an incredibly vibrant company on the cusp. >> you leave it at the top. >> how much is the company? >> that's a good sense. i think, actually a lot of it is him. there are some things he did. for instance, you may remember
the ford 500 or uma i not until they rebranded it. the taurus which is a great brand. you know the taurus. you know other things like standardizing a lot of the components, that was his impetus from boeing and the airlines. >> i agree with you. my question is do you sell the stock based on this? >> i like the new york stock exchange. i like the stock. this is not all them. he's created the momentum. right. he's changed the paradigm there. other leaders can come in and follow in his footsteps. >> i think that's the point they're far better positioned for him to leave than a couple years ago when it would have been a disaster. the space is interesting. they had a rough day today. autonation is the name we've talked about for a while. look at their numbers. it's actually ridiculous what they're doing. >> that stock is trading around an all time high. >> all right. let's address the big movers for the week. j.c. penney up 14% this week. jim. >> the story still has to play out. if you are bill ackman it hurts
to see these other hedges come in and pick up the scraps on the table, making some money out of it. i still want to see how the next earnings report comes in and how their financing looks. popular for facebook. up 6%. >> analysts raise their targetlet. you stay. the moment item is there. it will be there until the next earnings release. i think the traders stay long into that release and get out of it before they report that day. >> popular for blackberry the move 7% this week. >> we talked about steve ballmer, here's another company i think if they had new management and execution, it would be much stronger. so this 7% pop on the week you want to take your profits on this and move on to something else. a lot of good assets there. >> newmonday down 4%. >> it's 10% of the gdx. i don't think taper will be big enough to tame i take the steam out of these gold miners. >> regius smart watches and use
your "fast money," we can review. >> the one and only regis philbin who joins us now on the fast line with. >> i have been trying to introduce my stuff to you. no guy is regis. he looks down at it. >> regis are you so wrong. you got pe confused with your wife or something. i said we should be trading the stock when it was trading 8 bucks. >> it was just beginning. >> samsung unveiling the galaxy linked smart watch called galaxy gear. i know one person who is definitely not going to get this. >> you are talking about me. what does that mean? how does that mean i don't have it already? i have the prototype back home. >> kassio is not the same as gear. >> i think it will be a bone. i wonder if there is some sort of -- >> what kind of bone? >> as opposed to other products. a tv whatever another
mini,matics, whatever pad. >> geeze. >> what is this is it? what if the home builders are telling us the whole run is over. >> what if the sunrises in the east? what if? what if? >> i'm agreeing with you. >> yes, with dan. >> with dan. >> feel better dan? >> yes. >> you know i'm getting to like nathan. >> i feel the same way, regis, getting to like him. >> a stud. >> he's a stud. >> it's hundred 100 and change. >> it is he's got a set, man. put that in your highlight reel. >> trade school later on coming up next the dow jones saying apple is in fact planning to ship a new low cost iphone to china mobile making it the first time wireless carrier will carry the smartphone what will it do to the stock? we are trading the names blowing up in the twitter sphere, that's it right after this.
indication the deal between the to is in place. that's according to a dow jones report citeing people familiar with the matter. now, the investing world has been anticipating such a deal would happen as soon as apple announced it would hold an event in china not long after hosting it in the u.s. next week. now the reason a deal could be big for apple ask that china mobile has 700 million subscribers dwarfing verizon wireless in the u.s. with 100 million subscribers, if apple can get a cheaper smartphone, it is a good sign and a good number of hands at china mobile that this could give it much needed help to gain some market share, mellissa, back over to you. >> thank you very much domenic chu with that. adding the equivalent of a verizon or at&t in terms of volume amount. >> that combined with perhaps the iphone 5s and 5krchl could be launched in china the same day. >> that could mean many more phones tore the december
quarter. >> december quarter, potentially. the news is probably old news at this point in time. it's been anticipated. it's been rumored. i suspect the reason the hedge funds got into this early. they are anticipating the type of news. i think in the short term leading into and right after the announcement next week it's vulnerable down to 440. you can see sell the news type of event. >> i think brian makes a big point the stock didn't rip on the back of that headline. if it wasn't in the stock. >> if you have been talking about it. >> it's the pointed, exactly. i don't think you have to pull the rip cord here. i think 465 is lovely. you got to watch closely. it's under there a couple times. it makes a purpose up to the 515, 520 level. >> basically, they're saying the stocks are doing what it's going to do. you can add a dollar which they say it won't matter. >> first a couple negative guys
here. >> whoa. >> >>. >> they're just not positive. >> i won't take away from the point. the balance sheet is so strong. one-sthird net cash. you don't see that every day. viewations, priced earnings to growth ratio below 1 as a valued investor, i love that. as a trader i can't say what the next catalyst is. this news is in the stock. i think what you see from here over the next few weeks, little catalysts coming down along the way. that kind of moves the stock higher. i don't see what the real negative catalyst is out there. >> to meet a real big launch of a big product that's sexy. i don't think this is sexy. >> if you think of apple, you think of the ecosystem, that's still there. android is still handing it to them. they're checking their butts there. you can't come up with a choice now. android has all the choice, apple has none. >> i think what you are seeing is apple is a boring stock. that may well be. >> i know you like boring.
you like the cash balance sheet. >> yeah. >> i'm saying when people boy apple, they boy growth. i don't see the growth there. you have to truly boy. >> that's debatable at this point as well. >> i think that ship has already happened. just to be clear, if we do get a sell-off, i would be a buyer of apple. i'm saying from now over the next two weeks, i think it's more likely that you get a sell-off that's a buying opportunity as opposed to i think apple is done. >> all right. coming up next a look back at cnbc today from johnson & johnson, we are trading your tweets. that's next.
check out delta airlines they're up 4 or 5% after hours? why? because at the close of business on tuesday, september 10th delta airlines will be included in the s&p 500 index to replace the mc software. so again, it will include delta airlines in place of the mc software, that could mean index fires, mellissa back over to you. >> certainly will. jim, you like the airlines here? >> i know there is a lot of people that will say, hey, this is adoll, it's always been a dog. i think the model is changed. these guys are making money from ancillary fees. they got people that know how to run this thing for a profit. here's the interesting thing, i didn't know delta was in the s&p 500. >> whose decision was it to keep the airlines out for the last five years? >> that's the next show. those options. >> stay tuned for that. in case you missed today's top moments on cnbc here's a rapid fire recap on tonight's executive edge.
. >> there is some breaking news chicago fed president charlie evans is making some comments in greenville, south carolina. he says that he does see the fed tapering later this year. >> clearly, focused on ford and we have a great partnership with microsoft as you pointed out, they helped us partner the list. they dealt with the sink system. i absolutely love serving our ford. >> just one thing that's clear about alan he doesn't want to quit ford until they get into a 3 to $4 earnings number. >> $159,000. august non-farm pay roms increased by 169,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 7.3%. i think this is another solid and steady jobs report. very consistent with the trends we have been seeing for some time. >> what i have been emphasizeing and will continue to stress is
that the assad regimes brazen use of chemical weapons isn't just a syrian tragedy. it's a threat to global peace and security. >> i know the markets are taking pride fairly aggressively on concerns of escalation of this crisis. what i'm saying this could be a question of interpretation. i think what putin was saying is comments i have seen previously which is a reiteration of the support, he has to be with the assad regime. >> what was the last stock you bought? >> j.c. penney's. abbott a million chairs shares. >> when did you boy? >> a couple days ago. >> j.c. penney would you? >> excuse me come again? >> i love mark cuban, i don't think i'd go that far. >> not playing that game. >> j.c. penney we said it on wednesday, the momentum seemed to be behind it. i was sitting right here. i like jc penney still. >> you make me blush, guys.
brian kelly. >> you know the one thing we struck that we haven't tauch touched on the jobs report it was weaker. there was one industry that was weaker than expected. that was the film industry. and i believe that some of you may recall there was a shutdown in the adult film industry. >> important. >> yes. >> they may have -- >> minding my own business now. >> because the reaction on your face is amazing. it is amazing. >> the economy didn't get the still lakes it needed from that industry. that's all i'm saying. >> i want to shut this down. let get to one tweet here. what does guy think? . you can't even make it it's like a bad joke. >> go ahead. >> the quarter was fine. the problem is the stock keeps running into resistance if you lock it's basically a doubletop. the quarter wasn't that bad. i think another couple cents in the downside then you boo i the stock. >> unbelievable. final trade time grasso.
>> bk. >> buy united airlines. before we got the delta news i put that in >> guy. >> we have conoco philips. remember you said how boring it was. >> you didn't tell the public. >> i said conoco philips. >> that's it for us. thanks so much for watching. for more "fast money," meantime "options action" begins right after this break.
. >> this is "option action" tonight, why are traders digging minutes? new internet stocks are partying like it's 1999. we'll explain why the party is just starting. plus rosieing rates have investors freaking out. >> it's mass hysteria. >> the man that calls the bottom in gold explains the rates have tapped out. hemoexplain why. could microsoft be dead money again? with the ballmer boost over will microsoft see another lost decade in the action